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InvestorGuide Daily Newsletter Daily Newsletter — 11/18/2008
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Market Summary Market News Market Analysis Earnings Upgrades/Downgrades

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Market Summary
Stocks jumped into positive territory during the last minutes of Tuesday’s session after trading lower a majority of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 151.17 points to end at 8,424.27. The Nasdaq was initially boosted by encouraging reports from two large technology companies. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Charts, News, Offers) said that its fourth-quarter profit would exceed analysts’ expectations despite battling a bad economy. Yahoo! (YHOO: Charts, News, Offers) announced that CEO Jerry Yang would step down from his position. News of Yang’s departure was welcomed by investors who credited him with preventing lucrative deals from Google (GOOG: Charts, News, Offers) and Microsoft (MSFT: Charts, News, Offers). Stocks also briefly jumped after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair all said that the bailout package is beginning to work. The news was not enough to keep the market extremely higher and stocks eventually fell closer to the flat line. In other news, a National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) report showed that homeowners’ confidence in the housing market reach a record low in November. U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell 56 cents to settle at $54.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold fell $9.30 to settle at $732.70 an ounce.
More Markets Data

Market News
The Home Depot Inc. (HD: Charts, News, Offers), the nation's largest home improvement chain, said Tuesday that its third-quarter profit sank by nearly a third as shoppers scaled back on everything from custom kitchens to lumber and flooring. The company also forecast a steeper drop in full-year sales due to the still-challenging housing and home improvement markets that are vexing the industry. "You all obviously know that this is a difficult environment," said Chief Executive Frank Blake. "The view we had at the start of the quarter, that we might be nearing the bottom, ... gave way to the financial crisis in September and beyond." But despite the grim environment, the Atlanta-based home improvement chain still managed to top Wall Street's expectations. (Source: Yahoo! Finance) Full Story

With Jerry Yang stepping down from the top position at Yahoo! (YHOO: Charts, News, Offers), many expect the path is now clear for Microsoft (MSFT: Charts, News, Offers) to swoop back in with a bid to acquire the ailing Internet search giant. Some industry observers argue, however, that Yahoo! can remain a stand-alone business, and even succeed, if it were to stop entertaining thoughts of a buyout and instead come to an agreement with Microsoft on a paid-search deal. Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, said in a research note to clients Tuesday that whomever Yahoo!'s board selects as a replacement for Yang will indicate whether the company has plans of either continuing to compete on its own or looking for a new acquisition or partnership agreement. (Source: TheStreet) Full Story

Homebuilders' confidence in a near-term housing recovery sank to a new all-time low this month, reflecting growing worries over the U.S. financial crisis, rising unemployment and weakening consumer confidence, an industry trade association said Tuesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index, started in January 1985, tumbled five points to nine in November. The index stood at 14 in October after slipping three points from September. Index readings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment about the market. But the index has drifted below 50 since May 2006 and below 20 since April. "Today's report shows that we are in a crisis situation," NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn said in a statement. "Tremendous economic uncertainties have driven consumers from the housing market, and it's going to take some major incentives to bring them back." (Source: BusinessWeek) Full Story


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Featured Article from the InvestorGuide University
Taxes and Your Investments
Learn how taxes should affect your investment strategy. Understand how gains from stocks, mutual funds, bonds, lottery winnings, and other sources are taxed differently. Topics include short-term and long-term capital gains, the wash sale rule, investment interest, stock splits, and active trading.

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Market Analysis
Last week's economic data shows that "risk aversion hysteria" has had a major impact on economic activity in the United States. The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits (aka continuing claims) increased to almost 3.9 million in late October. As a share of the workforce, continuing claims are now back to the peak hit in the aftermath of the 2001 recession. Meanwhile, retail sales plummeted in October and are down 4.1% versus a year ago, the worst one-year comparison on record. September's international trade data showed a smaller trade deficit, but the underlying figures reported record declines for both imports and exports. (Source: Forbes.com) Full Story

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is up to his ears trying to make the Troubled Asset Relief Program work. That's what he should be doing. He also ought to be pushing a really big economic stimulus plan. Politically, it may be impossible, given a distaste for such a plan in the White House, the brief life left for the Bush administration and the intention on Capitol Hill to have only a short lame-duck session. Paulson should give it a shot anyway. All the actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the investment of $250 billion in banks through the TARP aren't likely to be enough to get the U.S. economy out of the ditch it's in. The economy may be shrinking at a 4 percent annual rate this quarter, according to several forecasters who expect another, smaller decline in the first quarter of next year. The gross domestic production fell at a 0.3 percent rate in the three months ended in September. (Source: Bloomberg) Full Story

When U.S. stocks plunged last summer, the SEC adopted several measures to constrain short selling, or betting that a stock's price will decline by selling borrowed shares. These included weekly reporting of short positions by large investment managers, requiring short sellers to line up in advance borrowed shares, and temporarily banning all short sales in financial stocks. These measures proved ineffective. Even during the three-week ban starting on Sept. 22, financial stocks fell along with the market, after outperforming the market prior to the ban. Moreover, the liquidity of these financial stocks decreased, and the cost of trading them increased, as bid-ask spreads widened. (Source: Wall Street Journal) Full Story

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On This Date
November 18, 1997: Microsoft says armed robbers stole 200,000 certificates of authenticity and 100,000 CD ROMs, and other equipment from a manufacturing plant in Scotland.

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Notable Quotable
Debt is the worst poverty. - Thomas Fuller

Previous Newsletters
November 17, 2008
November 14, 2008
November 13, 2008
November 12, 2008
November 11, 2008
Today's Reported Earnings
Company (Symbol) Reported Expected Last Year
ArvinMeritor (ARM) 0.38 0.34 -0.06
GigaMedia (GIGM) 0.18 0.18 0.17
Home Depot (HD) 0.45 0.38 0.59
Medtronic (MDT) 0.67 0.71 0.58
Saks Incorporated (SKS) -0.13 -0.03 0.17
View more earnings releases by date or by company here

Tomorrow's Expected Earnings
Company (Symbol) Expected Last Year
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) 0.46 0.35
Cyberonics (CYBX) 0.06 -0.15
Dress Barn (DBRN) 0.27 0.3
Gymboree (GYMB) 1.03 0.91
Hot Topic (HOTT) 0.16 0.15
Intuit (INTU) -0.12 -0.1
Limited Brands (LTD) 0 -0.01
Longs Drug Stores (LDG) 0.62 0.51
Men's Wearhouse (MW) 0.24 0.69
Mentor Graphics (MENT) -0.04 0
PETsMART (PETM) 0.26 0.23
Ross Stores (ROST) 0.43 0.36
Semtech (SMTC) 0.24 0.29
Teekay Shipping (TK) 1 0.31
Woodward Governor Company (WGOV) 0.5 0.73

Top Analyst Upgrades
Company Analyst Rating
Insteel Industries Sidoti & Co. Buy
IDM Pharma Rodman & Renshaw Market Perform
Reynolds American Gabelli & Co. Buy
Zions Bancorp Sterne Agee Hold
Whitney Holding Corp. Sterne Agee Hold
AeroVironment Stanford Group Buy
Chiquita Brands BB&T Capital Buy
Aaron Rents Cowen & Co Outperform
Medcath Citi Hold
Disney Pali Research Buy
BJ Services Wachovia Securities Outperform
CBRL Group KeyBanc Hold
Millicom Int'l Cellular UBS Neutral
MetroPCS RBC Capital Outperform
General Communication RBC Capital Outperform
Chico's FAS UBS Neutral
Top Analyst Downgrades
Company Analyst Rating
Open Text Corp. BMO Capital Market Perform
US Home Systems Hilliard Lyons Neutral
DivX Maxim Group Hold
Ctrip.com International Ltd. Deutsche Bank Hold
MEMC Electronic Materials Hapoalim Securities Sell
XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ladenburg Thalmann Sell
Brady BMO Capital Underperform
Digital River Stanford Research Sell
PepsiCo UBS Neutral
Coca-Cola UBS Neutral
Taleo Corporation KeyBanc Hold
Deutsche Telekom Deutsche Bank Hold
Deutsche Telekom Goldman Sachs Neutral
Internap RBC Capital Underperform
Albemarle Oppenheimer Underperform
Southern Copper Morgan Stanley Underweight
Evergreen Solar J.P. Morgan Underweight
Ascent Solar J.P. Morgan Underweight
Kellogg UBS Neutral
MEMC Electronic Materials Caris & Co. Average
Corning Inc. Davenport Sell
Trina Solar Deutsche Bank Hold

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