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InvestorGuide Daily Newsletter Daily Newsletter — 11/13/2008
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Market Summary Market News Market Analysis Earnings Upgrades/Downgrades

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Market Summary
Wall Street made a major comeback on Thursday as investors scooped up bargains. Stocks followed the same declining pattern earlier in the session and pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average below the 8,000 mark. The initial factor motivating the sell-off was a report from the Labor Department that showed that the number of individuals seeking unemployment benefits jumped to a 7-year high. Stocks started to rebound during afternoon trading as the S&P came off its trading low. Investors were also encouraged by Wal-Mart’s (WMT: Charts, News, Offers) third-quarter profits, which beat estimates. On the other hand, Intel (INTC: Charts, News, Offers) issued a warning that fourth-quarter sales predictions will not hold up as it deals with low demand. U.S. light crude oil for December delivery was up $1.89 to $58.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil service stocks including Exxon Mobil (XOM: Charts, News, Offers) and Chevron (CVX: Charts, News, Offers) gained thanks to rising oil prices. Financial shares continued to struggle a day after the government announced modifications to the $700B bailout plan. In other news, the September trade gap narrowed to $56.5 billion in October from $59.1 billion in August. United States Steel Corp. (X: Charts, News, Offers) said it will lay off 677 workers. The dollar gained against the euro and fell versus the yen.
More Markets Data

Market News
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT: Charts, News, Offers) reported a 10 percent increase in third-quarter profit Thursday but trimmed its profit outlook because of the troubled global economy and the renewed strength of the dollar. The world's largest retailer said its renewed focus on low prices was attracting financially squeezed shoppers and that it was pleased with the results of early holiday price promotions. The Bentonville, Ark.-based retailer said it earned $3.14 billion, or 80 cents per share, in the quarter ended Oct. 31. That's up from $2.86 billion, or 70 cents per share, a year earlier. Earnings from continuing operations were 77 cents per share. Total sales for the quarter rose 7.4 percent to $98.64 billion from $91.86 billion a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 76 cents per share on sales of $98.28 billion. (Source: Yahoo! Finance) Full Story

Sprint Nextel (S: Charts, News, Offers) is offering voluntary buyout packages to some employees as part of the wireless company's cost-cutting measures. Sprint spokesman James Fisher said the company will allow groups of employees that don't deal directly with customers the ability to apply for the packages. Sprint will grant the buyouts on a group-by-group basis based on current staffing levels and company needs. Not everyone seeking a buyout will get one, Fisher said. "We have been looking at cutting costs all of this year," Fisher said. "In the third quarter, that really helped us in terms of our cash flow and our cash position. Labor costs are a big part of that." (Source: TheStreet) Full Story

The number of homeowners caught in the wave of foreclosures in October grew 25 percent nationally over the same month in 2007, data released Thursday showed. More than 279,500 U.S. homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in October, an increase of 5 percent over September, according to RealtyTrac Inc. One in every 452 housing units received a foreclosure filing, such as a default notice, auction sale notice or bank repossession. A nasty brew of strict lending standards, falling home values and a tough economy is filtering through the housing market. By the end of the year, the company expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S. (Source: MSNBC) Full Story


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Market Analysis
Maybe the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department learned a lesson from letting Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: Charts, News, Offers) collapse. The alternative to a costly rescue could be worse: a long and painful recession. If taking risks with taxpayers' money is part of a sweeping effort to prevent failures of large institutions that could threaten the entire system, so be it. Some institutions really are too big to be allowed to fail, a point driven home by the Lehman bankruptcy two months ago. In the wake of that event, the world's financial system seized up, stock prices collapsed and frightened consumers slashed their spending. If there were any doubts about whether we were in a recession, that combination put them to rest. American International Group Inc. (AIG: Charts, News, Offers), the world's biggest insurer, unfortunately falls into the too-big-to-fail category. On Sept. 16, the Fed loaned AIG $85 billion in exchange for warrants to buy common stock that would give the government 79.9 percent of the company. The Fed extended another $38 billion in credit on Oct. 9. (Source: Bloomberg) Full Story

It is useful, at this juncture, to stand back and survey the economic landscape--both as it is now, and as it has been in recent months. So here is a summary of many of the points that I have made for the last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy, as well as for financial markets: --The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative gross domestic product drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The U.S. consumer is shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened: This will be the worst consumer recession in decades. (Source: Forbes.com) Full Story

During the Michigan primary in January, Mitt Romney predicted that if the nation did not learn from Michigan's experiences, it might soon travel down the same precarious economic path. In a twisted way, that prediction may be on the verge of coming true. Michigan's self-destructive economic practices have sent ripples of fiscal poison all across the nation in the form of supplier contracts, dealership agreements and financing agreements by, for and with General Motors (GM: Charts, News, Offers), Ford (F: Charts, News, Offers) and Chrysler. Thanks to the business malpractice of the Big Three, Michigan has been an economic basket case for years. We're used to it. But if our well-deserved comeuppance is finally at hand, the rest of the nation should understand that it’s going to suffer a lot of collateral damage. This is not to say it shouldn't be allowed to happen. Just a word to the wise: Be ready. (Source: Real Clear Markets) Full Story

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Notable Quotable
History suggests that capitalism is a necessary condition for political freedom. Clearly it is not a sufficient condition. - Milton Friedman

Previous Newsletters
November 12, 2008
November 11, 2008
November 10, 2008
November 7, 2008
November 6, 2008
Today's Reported Earnings
Company (Symbol) Reported Expected Last Year
Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC) -0.19 -0.09 0.47
NewJersey Resources (NJR) -0.39 -0.4 -0.37
Pan American Silver (PAAS) 0.14 0.16 0.31
Siemens AG (SI) 2.17 1.12 1.41
Urban Outfitters (URBN) 0.35 0.35 0.26
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 0.77 0.76 0.69
View more earnings releases by date or by company here

Tomorrow's Expected Earnings
Company (Symbol) Expected Last Year
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 0.71 1.29
Agilent Technologies (A) 0.59 0.45
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL) -0.35 0.12
Hewitt Associates (HEW) 0.5 0.6
J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Holding Company (JCP) 0.53 1.03
Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) -0.86 -0.93
Telefonica (TEF)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Company Analyst Rating
Darden Restaurants Cowen & Co Neutral
PetroChina Citi Hold
Bob Evans Farms KeyBanc Hold
Cooper Tire KeyBanc Hold
Ameriprise Financial Credit Suisse Outperform
Constellation Brands UBS Buy
Las Vegas Sands Banc of America Neutral
Top Analyst Downgrades
Company Analyst Rating
JA Solar Credit Suisse Neutral
SunPower Wedbush Morgan Buy
GT Solar Friedman Billings & Ramsey Market Perform
Synaptics Lazard Capital Markets Sell
Live Nation CL King Neutral
Suntech Power Holdings Raymond James Outperform
National Semiconductor Raymond James Underperform
KHD Humboldt Wedag BB&T Capital Hold
Banco Santander-Chile Merrill Lynch Underperform
Dell BMO Capital Market Perform
Darden Restaurants MKM Partners Sell
Petrobras Energia Citi Sell
TOTAL S.A. Citi Hold
Macquarie Infrastructure Company Trust Citi Hold
Giant Interactive Piper Jaffray & Co. Neutral
TIBCO Software Jefferies & Co Underperform
Central European Media J.P. Morgan Underweight
CTC Media J.P. Morgan Neutral
JC Penney Morgan Stanley Equal-weight

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