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InvestorGuide Daily Newsletter Daily Newsletter — 10/17/2008
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Market Summary Market News Market Analysis Earnings Upgrades/Downgrades
Market Summary
Stocks cut gains and ended lower on Friday as recession fears lingered. Stocks jumped between negative and positive the majority of the morning, but fell right before the closing bell. This week has been another erratic one for Wall Street, so many investors were not surprised by the path this session took. A 6% drop in new home construction contributed to the market’s instability earlier in the session. Investors were happy to see that Google (GOOG: Charts, News, Offers) reported better-than-expected earnings. This news appeared to calm investors’ reaction to consumer sentiment falling to 57.5 from 70.3 in September. Comments from Warren Buffett also helped the market during afternoon trading, but were still not enough to keep stocks from falling. Buffett said that he will continue to invest in stocks and a large portion of his portfolio will be made up of this type of investment. In corporate news, IBM (IBM: Charts, News, Offers) reported higher profit that beat estimates. AIG (AIG: Charts, News, Offers) said that it had to pull another $12B out of an emergency government fund. Capital One (COF: Charts, News, Offers) reported a third-quarter profit that missed expectations. U.S. light crude oil for November delivery rose $3.94 to $73.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rose to 0.83% from 0.47%.
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Market News
Honeywell International Inc. (HON: Charts, News, Offers) said Friday third-quarter earnings rose 16 percent on higher sales in its building controls division but trimmed its 2008 forecast as it prepares for a likely recession and slow growth in foreign markets. The Morristown, N.J.-based company narrowed its profit forecast for 2008, dropping the top end of its outlook by five cents while raising the low end by a penny. Honeywell now expects earnings to range $3.76 to $3.80 per share on sales of $37.2 billion, short of analysts predictions. Shares of Honeywell, which makes products such as airp*** and fire safety equipment, fell $2.18, or 7 percent, to $28.75 in midday trade on Friday. The company outlook reflects concern that the U.S. and Europe would be in recessions next year, and that once booming markets such as India and China would slow. The continued decline in home building and forecasts of less flying next year could weigh on the company's largest units, building controls and aerospace. (Source: Yahoo! Finance) Full Story

Schlumberger (SLB: Charts, News, Offers) reported its revenues jumped 24 percent during the third quarter but the world's largest oilfield services company said Friday that the global economic crisis will undoubtedly take a toll. With a barrel of oil going for more than $100 for most of the quarter, Schlumberger reported net income of $1.53 billion, or $1.25 per share, compared with $1.35 billion, or $1.09 per share, during the same period last year. A violent hurricane season cut away 4 cents per share in profits for the quarter, Schlumberger said. Without the disruptions, diluted earnings-per-share would have been $1.29. Schlumberger reported revenue of $7.26 billion, up from $5.93 billion last year. North America was a strong driver during the quarter, with revenue rising 15 percent to $1.5 billion. (Source: CNN Money) Full Story

Drug giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE: Charts, News, Offers) has reached an $894 million deal to end most of the lawsuits over its two prescription pain relievers, the popular Celebrex and a similar drug, Bextra, no longer on the market. The world’s biggest drugmaker said Friday it has agreements in principle to end more than 90 percent of personal injury lawsuits brought by people claiming the pills caused heart attacks, strokes or other harm. The settlement includes roughly 7,000 personal injury cases, mainly plaintiffs who took since-withdrawn Bextra, said plaintiff attorney Perry Weitz. He represents nearly 2,000 claimants, about 10 percent of them relatives of people who died. “It gives Pfizer closure and the claimants their money sooner, rather than later or never at all,” Weitz said. (Source: MSNBC) Full Story


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Market Analysis
This is a defining moment for the world economy. We are living through the first financial crisis of this new global age. And the decisions we make will affect us over not just the next few weeks but for years to come. The global problems we face require global solutions. At the end of World War II, American and European visionaries built a new international economic order and formed the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and a world trade body. They acted because they knew that peace and prosperity were indivisible. They knew that for prosperity to be sustained, it had to be shared. Such was the impact of what they did for their day and age that Secretary of State Dean Acheson spoke of being "present at the creation." Today, the same sort of visionary internationalism is needed to resolve the crises and challenges of a different age. And the greatest of global challenges demands of us the boldest of global cooperation. (Source: Washington Post) Full Story

For two years after housing prices began falling and a year after the bursting of that bubble turned into a financial crisis, U.S. consumers soldiered on. Month after month, their spending, the mainstay of the economy, kept increasing. Now, for the first time in 17 years, slower income growth, tighter credit and the loss of wealth from plunging stock prices -- along with house prices that still are falling -- have caused them to retrench. The result is the onset of a recession the depth of which no one can yet gauge. Various parts of the government, with the Federal Reserve leading the way, have taken a series of unprecedented steps to deal with the financial crisis. But more aggressive action is needed to help restore consumer and business confidence and enable households and state and local governments to boost spending. (Source: Bloomberg) Full Story

The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities. Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. (Source: CNBC) Full Story

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Notable Quotable
Now is always the most difficult time to invest. Anonymous

Previous Newsletters
October 16, 2008
October 15, 2008
October 14, 2008
October 13, 2008
October 10, 2008
Today's Reported Earnings
Company (Symbol) Reported Expected Last Year
Amcol (ACO) 0.63 0.64 0.59
Comerica (CMA) 0.18 0.06 1.17
First Tennessee National (FHN) -0.59 -0.15 -0.11
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) 0.81 0.78 0.76
Honeywell (HON) 0.97 0.95 0.81
iGATE (IGTE) 0.15 0.14 0.08
Schlumberger (SLB) 1.29 1.25 1.09
Sonic (SONC) 0.33 0.33 0.34
V.F. Corporation (VFC) 2.03 2.03 1.86
Wilmington Trust (WL) 0.53 0.42 0.67
View more earnings releases by date or by company here

Tomorrow's Expected Earnings
No major earnings expected tomorrow.

Top Analyst Upgrades
Company Analyst Rating
Ormat Technologies Stanford Group Buy
Valmont Industries Gabelli and Co Buy
Smithfields Foods, Inc. Barclays Capital Equal-Weight
Dynamics Research BB&T Capital Buy
Genesco BB&T Capital Buy
Stryker Corporation Soleil Securities Buy
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Janney Montgomery Scott Buy
Urban Outfitters BB&T Capital Buy
Tempur-Pedic Wedbush Morgan Buy
Gilead Sciences BMO Capital Outperform
Merck & Co. Inc. UBS Buy
Wyeth UBS Buy
United Therapeutics Brean Murray Buy
IntercontinentalExchange Fox-Pitt Kelton Outperform
Watsco, Inc. KeyBanc Buy
Foot Locker Citi Buy
Watsco, Inc. Piper Jaffray Buy
Advance Auto Parts UBS Neutral
Masco Corp UBS Neutral
Coinstar Goldman Sachs Neutral
Capital One Financial Calyon Securities Buy
Royal Dutch Shell Goldman Sachs Buy
Saks Inc J.P. Morgan Neutral
Macy's J.P. Morgan Overweight
WD-40 Company J.P. Morgan Neutral
Kraft Merrill Lynch Buy
UnitedHealth Goldman Sachs Buy
Top Analyst Downgrades
Company Analyst Rating
Evergreen Solar JANCO Market Perform
SunPower JANCO Accumulate
Global Industries, Ltd. Capital One Neutral
Ceragon Networks Oscar Gruss Technology Research Hold
Honeywell Sterne Agee Hold
Libbey Avondale Partners Market Perform
Libbey CL King Neutral
Standard Motor Products BB&T Capital Hold
Skechers USA BB&T Capital Hold
Monster Worldwide Bank of America Neutral
Usana Health Goldman Sachs Sell
NGP Capital Stifel Nicolaus Hold
AMCORE Financial Stifel Nicolaus Hold
Sunpower Merrill Lynch Neutral
Evergreen Solar Wedbush Morgan Hold
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold RBC Capital Sector Perform
Textron Barclays Equalweight
Johnson Controls Goldman Sachs Neutral
BP plc Goldman Sachs Neutral
Luxottica Group HSBC Neutral
Avis Budget Barclays Capital Equal Weight
AuthenTec J.P. Morgan Underweight
Zions Bancorporation J.P. Morgan Neutral
ArvinMeritor Goldman Sachs Neutral

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