Date:
Sun, April 27, 2008 09:39:27 AMFrom:
Gerry McGovern
Subject:
NEW THINKING: The power of averaged intelligence
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THE POWER OF AVERAGED INTELLIGENCE
The Web is showing us that in a great many areas of human
endeavor the best intelligence lies in the network as a whole,
rather than any one element.
'The Origin of Wealth' by Eric D. Beinhocker is full of wisdom.
In it, Beinhocker challenges a lot of the principles of
traditional economics. Like, for example, that markets are
predictable and that there is some sort of perfect equilibrium.
(If markets are indeed predictable then most economists should
be fired because of their awful predictions.)
Beinhocker believes that we live in a world of unpredictable
complexity that is evolutionary in its behavior. However, while
you can't predict the future, you can seek to be more fit and
flexible, so as to adapt quickly to what the future throws at
you.
There are hardly any companies that achieve excellence over the
long-term, according to Beinhocker. In fact, most go extinct.
This leads us to a "brutal truth" about companies. "Markets are
highly dynamic, but the vast majority of companies are not."
I recently had the privilege of working with a company called
Vanguard. You've probably never heard of them. (They never
advertise on TV.) They are an investment management company that
has well over a trillion dollars under management. (That's a lot
of money.)
My understanding of the Vanguard approach is that investing in
individual stocks is like gambling. Instead, you invest in the
market as a whole and invest for the long-term. That's because
over the long-term the market tends to rise. Vanguard focuses on
keeping costs as low as possible, meaning it has really low
fees. You retire richer with Vanguard.
I used to be a big fan of the heroic individual. I used to have
contempt for the crowd. But the Web changed all that. As I
watched what succeeded and failed on the Web, it struck me that
nearly every major website that succeeded had one thing in
common.
Google, EBay, Amazon, You Tube, MySpace, Facebook, etc., all
leverage the intelligence of the customer. These, and countless
other successful websites, have ways to find the average of
customer opinion and behavior. They allow us to discover in a
systematic way what people like us think about a product,
service, or idea.
The network is wise and the more we embrace and understand it,
the wiser we become. We may not be able to predict the future
but we can become fitter so that no matter the future throws at
us, we can adapt.
So, how do we do that? One way is by using the Web to have more
friends of friends. It has been proven that if you're looking
for a new job, you are more likely to get that job through a
friend of a friend than a friend.
Fitness in a network is about making connections, getting
linked. The organizations that are fittest in a network are
those that actively link out and let others link in.
Gerry McGovern
mailto:gerry@gerrymcgovern.com
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NEW THINKING NEW THINKING NEW THINKING NEW THINKING
By Gerry McGovern - http://www.gerrymcgovern.com
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April 28, 2008 - Volume 13 Number 17
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