-- Feature Article: A Review of 12 Powerful Estimating Strategies

-- Note from the Author: Why Is Project Estimating Such a Hot Topic?

-- Special Message: Two Intriguing Business Novels

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Criss, Why Is Project Estimating Such a Hot Topic?

This last week I was honored to give a presentation on estimating to the local chapter of PMI (the Project Management Institute), a world-class organization to which I belong. In attendance were a variety of savvy and seasoned project professionals who all experience the same challenge I have: estimating accurately.

We tried a quick experiment to determine how long each person thought it would take to perform a short series of tasks. The answers ranged from minutes to hours to days -- even weeks -- to complete the same basic tasks!

This astonishing result shows how much variability exists in our perceptions of what's required to perform an activity. If you imagine scaling these differences to the level of an entire project, I think it can help explain why we often have so much difficulty agreeing on, much less carrying out, a precise plan of action.

Furthermore, I've received some great blog comments on my last newsletter article on project budgets. One visitor essentially asked for a summary of the estimating techniques that I've recommended in the past. What a great idea! I have since created a new article with a checklist of those tips, below.

For these reasons, I hope you enjoy today's features, including "A Review of 12 Powerful Estimating Strategies." What experiences do you have to share? Join the conversation by leaving your comments on my blog!

Here's to your business prosperity,

Adele Sommers, author of the "Straight Talk on Boosting Business Performance" success program

P.S. If you missed any previous issue, visit the newsletter index!

Criss, Two Intriguing Business Novels

In case you're not familiar with the genre of business fiction, it uses fictional plots and characters to explore real-world issues, and can thereby help explain complex concepts with ease -- even for very dry subjects. Well, few subjects might seem as dry as project estimating. Luckily, the books listed below offer entertaining drama while imparting insightful information on relevant techniques.

"The Deadline: A Novel about Project Management," by software expert Tom DeMarco, is an enjoyable example of business fiction that explains an array of advanced software project management techniques through a riveting plot that starts with a kidnapping and continues with adventures filled with international intrigue. Anyone who has experienced the twists and turns of software development projects will surely relate to the fascinating directions the story line takes.

"Critical Chain," one of Eli Goldratt's highly compelling business novels, uses characters that jointly explore, debate, and ultimately discover why their varied projects frequently run late and over budget, or often fail to complete everything that was originally specified. The story covers many important issues that affect project schedules.

For example, the book teaches companies how to cut project development times and even finish early, within budget and without compromising quality or specifications.

By concentrating resources on bottleneck areas and carefully managing buffer time, the characters discover through a series of experiments and revelations how to focus their efforts and prevent their attention from being divided ineffectively among too many tasks and resources. It's another engaging, "must-read" resource for your project library!

A Review of 12 Powerful Estimating Strategies
by Adele Sommers

Do you excel at predicting the time, funding, and resources your projects will require? If not, you're in good company! Nearly everyone I poll admits having the same challenge.

You may have noticed this phenomenon already: It's extremely difficult to calculate with any certainty how long a particular effort is going to take. This article explores some possible reasons why and offers 12 ideas for increasing estimating accuracy.

What Makes Project Estimating So Difficult?

When you ask any three people how long they think a particular effort could take, you might be surprised at the range of answers you'll hear. The possible reasons for the differences could include unfamiliarity with the work involved to an attempt to factor in unspoken requirements that seemed important to include.

Below are six of my favorite reasons for project estimating variability. I believe these are fairly universal, but are just a few of many possibilities:

1. Projects usually differ in at least some essential ways, making a "cookie-cutter" approach infeasible.
2. People chronically underestimate (but sometimes overestimate) time and effort.
3. Project requirements are typically very fuzzy at the start.
4. Requirements invariably shift over time.
5. Nearly everything about projects is dynamic.
6. Yet, projects are often constrained by finite conditions.

A confounding conundrum from the list above is that projects often involve many dynamic aspects, yet they almost always have finite budgets, schedules, or both. These contradictory forces make it extremely difficult to determine with pinpoint accuracy the hours and funding required, and thus set the stage for plenty of budget and schedule "collisions" during the life of the project.

When my own clients or colleagues ask me, "How long do you think this effort might take?" I, too, experience a knee-jerk reaction. Instinctively, a part of my brain that once excelled at solving math problems on timed quizzes goes into overdrive. "I know the answer!" it screams.

Yet, unless that project or task is something I've performed many times before -- under very similar conditions each time, and with good records of my actual hours spent -- providing an accurate estimate can be quite elusive.

As I'm striving to imagine all of the stages and steps of a process, as well as fathom the unknown variables or things that could go awry, it's no wonder that I hardly ever guess 100% correctly, particularly for new endeavors!

Among the related challenges are detecting the presence of hidden or unknown variables that are difficult or impossible to anticipate, and sometimes even more difficult to resolve. Furthermore, we seem to have a strong human desire to please other people by telling them what they want to hear -- especially in the areas of budget and schedule. (After all, who wants to be the bearer of bad news?)

Robust Estimating Techniques Can Help Manage Project Risks

Did you know that estimating can be an invaluable tool for anticipating and managing these project uncertainties? Whenever we can determine our schedule and budget requirements with reasonable accuracy, it reduces the risk of running out of time, resources, and funding during a project.

Try using the 12 ideas below for boosting the accuracy of your estimates!

In conclusion, by using a set of proactive techniques to scope, plan, and constrain your project conditions, you can dramatically improve your estimating practices, reduce and mitigate risks, and greatly increase your project success rate!

Copyright 2008 Adele Sommers

A Reminder about Reaching Your Destination

"There's no such thing as failure in life once you start working towards your goal. There's only feedback. If an airp*** leaves Los Angeles to fly to New York, it will be off course 99% of the time. But when you get off course, what do you do? You make course corrections."

-- Brian Tracy, motivational speaker and author

Adele Sommers, Ph.D. is the author of "Straight Talk on Boosting Business Performance" -- an award-winning Special Report and Workbook program.

If you liked today's issue, you'll love this down-to-earth overview of how 12 potent business-boosting strategies can reenergize the morale and productivity of your enterprise, tame unruly projects, and attract loyal, satisfied customers. It's accompanied by a step-by-step workbook designed to help you easily create your own success action plan. Browse the table of contents and reader reviews on the description page.

Adele also offers no-cost articles and resources to help small businesses and large organizations accelerate productivity and increase profitability. Learn more at LearnShareProsper.com.

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