DAILY MARKET
COMMENTARY
27 November
2007
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
GCI Foreign
Exchange Research:
www.gcitrading.com/fxnews/
FX
Research Desk:
fxnews@gcitrading.com
_____________________________________________________________________
Fundamental
Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT +
0500)
€
The euro moved lower
vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency
tested bids around the US$ 1.4810 level and was capped around the
$1.4910 level.
Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2%
retracement of the move from $1.4520 to $1.4965. Data released in the U.S.
today saw the November consumer confidence index decline to 87.3
from a revised 95.2 in October. The decline in consumer
sentiment coincides with elevated oil prices and credit market
turmoil. Traders await
remarks from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser later in the North
American session. In
eurozone news, German consumer price inflation rose 3.0% y/y in
November, its highest level since February 1994 and up from
October’s 2.4% level.
These data suggest the European Central Bank cannot be
complacent about price risks in the eurozone’s largest economy. Also, the German November
Ifo business climate index improved to 104.2 from 103.9 in October,
defying forecasts for a drop.
ECB member Garganas called the euro’s recent moves “sharp and
abrupt” and added they are not following economic fundamentals. Euro bids are cited around
the US$ 1.4575/ 1.4470 levels.
¥/
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S.
dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¥108.85 level and was supported
around the ¥107.25 level.
Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2%
retracement of the move from ¥111.75 to ¥107.20. The Japanese government
downgraded its assessment of employment for the first time in three
years and reiterated the overall economy “is recovering, while some
weaknesses have been seen recently.” The government also noted the
largest economic risk remains the problems in the U.S. subprime
market. Data released
in Japan today saw the October corporate services price index
increase 1.4% y/y, the eleventh consecutive monthly increase. The Nikkei 225 stock index
gained 0.58% to close at ¥15,222.85. Dollar bids are cited around
the ¥106.55 level. The euro moved higher
vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the
¥161.80 level and was supported around the ¥159.35 level. The British pound and Swiss
franc appreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers
around the ¥225.60 and ¥98.95 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan
appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback
closed at CNY 7.3840 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY
7.3969.
₤
The British pound
slumped vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 2.0640 level and was capped around the $2.0755
level. Technically,
today’s intraday high was right around the 50% retracement of the
move from $2.1160 to $2.0355.
Most traders believe Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee may begin easing interest rates as early as next month,
and well into 2008.
Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0365 level. The euro moved lower
vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids
around the ₤0.7160 level and was capped around the ₤0.7195 level.
CHF
The Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the
U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1070 level and was
supported around the CHF 1.0955 level. Data released in Switzerland
today saw the October producer and import price index up 0.2% m/m
and 2.7% y/y. These
data suggest Swiss National Bank may be forced to tighten monetary
policy next month.
Also, the UBS October private consumption index improved to
2.23 from 2.01. Dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.1185 level. The euro and British pound
gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested
offers around the CHF 1.6410 and CHF 2.2870 levels,
respectively.
Technical
Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)
(Bid Price)
(Today’s Intraday
Range)
EUR/ USD
1.4864
1.4908,
1.4815
USD/ JPY
108.45 108.80, 107.27
GBP/ USD
2.0700
2.0755,
2.0668
USD/ CHF
1.1002 1.1023,
1.0954
AUD/ USD
0.8741
0.8813,
0.8684
USD/CAD
0.9965
0.9986, 0.9820
NZD/USD
0.7587
0.7612, 0.7489
EUR/
JPY
161.19 161.82,
159.36
EUR/
GBP
0.7180
0.7196,
0.7160
EUR/
CHF
1.6355
1.6358, 1.6304
GBP/
JPY
224.49
225.59,
221.92
CHF/
JPY
98.55
98.97, 97.64
Support
Resistance
Support
Resistance
EUR/ USD
USD/ JPY
L1.
1.4160
1.4780
111.40
116.55
L2.
1.4045
1.4870
110.25
118.35
L3.
1.3950
1.4990
106.95
120.55
GBP/ USD
USD/
CHF
L1.
2.0600
2.1140
1.1160
1.1465
L2.
2.0445
2.1230
1.1030
1.1575
L3.
2.0240
2.1350
1.0900
1.1715
AUD/ USD
USD/
CAD
L1.
0.9010
0.9410
0.9020
0.9570
L2.
0.8925
0.9500
0.8940
0.9665
L3.
0.8805
0.9615
0.8830
0.9825
NZD/
USD
EUR/
JPY
L1.
0.7625
0.7890
163.85
168.00
L2.
0.7555
0.7970
162.90
168.80
L3.
0.7415
0.8080
161.75
169.95
EUR/
GBP
EUR/ CHF
L1.
0.6915
0.7020
1.6510
1.6850
L2.
0.6840
0.7070
1.6400
1.6920
L3.
0.6710
0.7140
1.6290
1.7040
GBP/ JPY
CHF/ JPY
L1.
232.50
243.55
98.15
100.70
L2.
231.60
246.95
96.95
101.85
L3.
230.20
251.10
94.45
102.90
SCHEDULE
Tuesday, 27
November 2007
all times
GMT
(last release
in parentheses)
N/A
Australia
October HIA new home sales (9.9%
m/m)
N/A
Japan
Monthly economic report
N/A
Germany
November CPI, harmonized (0.2%
m/m)
N/A
Germany
November CPI, harmonized (2.7%
y/y)
0500 Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Fukui
speaks
0500 Japan
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Iwata
speaks
0900
Germany
November Ifo business climate
(103.9)
0900
Germany
November Ifo business climate, current assessment
(109.6)
0900
Germany
November Ifo expectations (98.6)
1245 France
October housing starts (12.9%
y/y)
1315 CH
October producer and import prices (-0.3%
m/m)
1315 CH
October producer and import prices (2.4%
y/y)
1400
Hungary
European Central Bank member Liikanen
speaks
1400 Italy
October hourly wages (1.8% y/y)
1400 CH
October UBS consumption indicator
(1.992)
1900
Hungary
European Central Bank member Liikanen
speaks
2000 US
November Richmond Fed manufacturing index
(-5)
2220 US
Philadelphia Fed President Plosser
speaks
2350 Japan
October large retailers’ sales
(-2.0%)
2350 Japan
October retail trade (0.5% y/y)
2350 Japan
October retail trade (-1.5% m/m)
Wednesday, 28
November 2007
all times
GMT
(last release
in parentheses)
0000
Australia
November DEWR skilled vacancies (-0.9%
m/m)
0030
Australia
Q3 construction work done
0710
Germany
December GfK consumer confidence
(4.9)
0900
Eurozone
October M3 money supply (11.3%
y/y)
1030 CH
November KOF leading indicator
(2.02)
1200 US
MVA mortgage applications
1300 US
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn
speaks
1330 US
October durable goods order
(-1.7%)
1330 US
October durable goods, ex-transportation
(0.3%)
1500 US
October existing home sales (5.04
million)
1500 US
October existing home sales (-8.0%
m/m)
1830 US
Dallas Fed President Fisher
speaks
1900 US
Federal Reserve Beige Book
2145 NZ
October building permits (-8.3%
m/m)
2350 Japan
October industrial production (-1.4%
m/m)
2350 Japan
October industrial production (0.8%
y/y)
2350 Japan
Net equities and bonds
investment
Thursday, 29
November 2007
all times
GMT
(last release
in parentheses)
0030
Australia
Q3 private capital expenditure
(6.3%)
0200 NZ
October money supply (9.4% y/y)
0200 NZ
November NBNZ business confidence
(-12.9)
0500 Japan
November small business confidence
(47.8)
0700
Germany
October ILO unemployment rate
(8.1%)
0745 France
November consumer confidence
(-22)
0855
Germany
November unemployment change
(-40,000)
0855
Germany
November unemployment rate
(8.7%)
0900 France
November retail PMI (47.2)
0900
Germany
November retail PMI (48.5)
0900
Eurozone
November retail PMI (47.9)
0900
Eurozone
October producer price index (0.5%
m/m)
0900
Eurozone
October producer price index (3.5%
y/y)
0930 UK
October M4 money supply (0.1%
m/m)
0930 UK
October M4 money supply (11.8%
y/y)
0930 UK
October M4 sterling lending (₤19.8
billion)
0930 UK
October net consumer credit (₤1.4
billion)
0930 UK
October net lending securities on dwellings (₤9.8
billion)
0930 UK
October mortgage approvals
(102,000)
1100 UK
November CBI distributive trades
report
1330 US
Q3 GDP, annualized (3.9%)
1330 US
Q3 GDP price index (0.8%)
1330 US
Q3 personal consumption expenditures, core (1.8%
q/q)
1330 US
Weekly initial jobless claims
(330,000)
1330 US
Continuing jobless claims (2.566
million)
1330 Canada
Q3 current account (₤8.4
billion)
1330 Canada
October industrial product prices (-0.9%
m/m)
1330 Canada
October raw materials price index (-0.9%
m/m)
1500 US
October new home sales (770,000)
1500 US
October new home sales (4.8%
m/m)
1500 US
Q3 house price index (0.1% q/q)
2315 Japan
November manufacturing PMI
(49.5)
2330 Japan
October jobless rate (4.0%)
2330 Japan
October overall household spending (3.2%
y/y)
2330 Japan
November Tokyo-area CPI (0.1%
y/y)
2330 Japan
November Tokyo-area CPI, ex-fresh food, energy (-0.3%
y/y)
2330 Japan
October national CPI (-0.2% y/y)
2330 Japan
November national CPI, ex-fresh food, energy (-0.3%
y/y)
Friday, 30
November 2007
all times
GMT
(last release
in parentheses)
0000 US
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke
speaks
0030
Australia
Q3 current account balance
0030
Australia
October private sector (1.2%
m/m)
0030
Australia
October private sector credit (15.9%
y/y)
0500 Japan
October housing starts (-44.0%
y/y)
0500 Japan
October housing starts, annualized
(720,000)
0500 Japan
October construction orders (-16.3%
y/y)
0645 CH
Q3 GDP (0.7% q/q)
0645 CH
Q3 GDP (2.8% y/y)
0645 CH
November CPI (0.9% m/m)
0645 CH
November CPI (1.3% y/y)
0700
Germany
October retail sales (1.6% m/m)
0700
Germany
October retail sales (-2.2% y/y)
1000
Eurozone
November CPI, estimate (2.6%
y/y)
1000
Eurozone
Q3 GDP (0.7% q/q)
1000
Eurozone
Q3 GDP (2.6% y/y)
1000
Eurozone
November consumer confidence
(-6)
1000
Eurozone
November economic confidence
(105.9)
1000
Eurozone
November industrial confidence
(2)
1000
Eurozone
November services confidence
(18)
1030
Ireland
ECB member Tumpel-Gugerell
speaks
1030 UK
November GfK consumer confidence
(-8)
1330 US
October PCE, core (1.8% y/y)
1330 US
October PCE, core (0.2% m/m)
1330 US
October personal income (0.4%)
1330 US
October personal spending (0.3%)
1330 US
October PCE deflator (2.4% y/y
1330 Canada
September GDP (0.2% m/m)
1330 Canada
Q3 GDP, annualized (3.4%)
1445 US
November Chicago PMI (49.7)
1500 US
October construction spending (0.3%
m/m)
1500 US
Philadelphia Fed President Plosser
speaks
1730 US
St. Louis Fed President Poole
speaks
1815 US
Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is
provided for informational purposes only. The information contained
in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not
intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no
responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the
information herein contained.
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