How about those Red Raiders?
Suddenly, Texas fans are checking their calendars to make sure they’re not doing anything Dec. 1 and can still get to San Antonio for the Big 12 title game.
Longhorn fans have been checking the injury reports at Oklahoma this week to see if quarterback Sam Bradford will play against Oklahoma State. Bob Stoops says it could be a game-time decision.
I think Bradford will play.
And while I think OU will win the Bedlam game, I give the Cowboys a chance for the upset because sophomore quarterback Zac Robinson is leading an extremely confident OSU offense. Over the last five games, OSU is averaging 38.8 points and 534.2 yards. Robinson over that stretch has 10 TD passes and only two interceptions.
The irony would be palpable if Texas were to beat Texas A&M
and OU were to lose to OSU, sending the Longhorns to the Big 12 title game in a scenario eerily reminiscent of last season. In 2006, it was Texas sputtering down the stretch, allowing OU to backdoor into the Big 12 title game and go on to win Bob Stoops’ fourth league championship.
Stoops, by the way, shot down any rumors that he might be interested in the Michigan job.
First things first, Texas must handle
the Aggies at Kyle Field. A&M hasn’t folded the way some thought after the Aggies were blown out in Miami on Sept. 20 and after Dennis Franchione’s VIP Connection was exposed nine days later.
A&M will play its best game of the season on Friday and will be a strong test for a Texas defense that has given up more than 1,500 yards the last three games.
If Texas and Oklahoma were both to lose, the
tiebreaker to separate UT, OU and OSU, which would all be 5-3 in conference play at that point, would be the BCS rankings released Sunday.
That would probably put OU through to the Big 12 title game, considering the Sooners are 10th in the BCS right now and Texas is 13th. (How could Texas jump OU coming off a loss? UT fans would have to hope that OU gets blown out and that UT loses close, I guess.)
On to the questions
…
Q: In your article this week speculating about a three-way tie between Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State atop the Big 12 South, you said the first tiebreaker is head-to-head; the second is record vs. South division teams; with the third being
the record against the fourth-place team in the South. You said Tech and A&M would both be considered the fourth-place team at 4-4 in the league and that no tie could be broken because OU, UT and OSU would all be 1-1 against Tech and Texas A&M, thus forcing the BCS rankings tiebreaker. Why wouldn’t Tech alone be considered the fourth-place team because of its win over A&M? Under that scenario, Texas would go to the Big 12 title game,
not OU, because OU lost to Tech while Texas and OSU beat Tech (and of course, Texas would break that tie with the head-to-head victory over OSU).
Tim D., Fort Worth
BROWN: Somebody pass me some Advil. I know this stuff is confusing. The bottom line Tim is that the league office doesn’t use tiebreakers for lower-placed teams when trying to break a tie at the tope. Here is what Bob Burda, assistant
Big 12 commissioner for communications, e-mailed me relating to this subject: “The tiebreak protocol that has been established requires that ties are not broken further down in the standings when breaking ties at the top. Therefore, Tech and A&M would be looked at collectively in fourth-place when comparing the records of the three teams tied in first vs. the fourth-place position.” I realize that was a tough one to start off the
newsletter, so let’s simplify.
• • • Q: Tray Allen was billed as the best offensive lineman to come out of Texas high schools in years. We have been hearing all the good reports on Buck Burnette, Michael Huey and Kyle Hix but not a thing about Tray Allen. What’s the story?
Mike F., Pilot Point
BROWN: Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis, who will not be the next coach at SMU, by the way, said Allen progressed a little more slowly than the others you mentioned. Part of that is because he’s a left tackle, and he was playing behind Tony Hills. That being said, you’d like to think Allen will get some serious repetitions Friday and in the postseason, so that he can move into a key role next season. I’ll repeat my
prediction for next year’s offensive line: LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Michael Huey, C Buck Burnette, RG Chris Hall, RT Kyle Hix. You put Allen in as a guy who can play both tackle spots and rotate him in, then have guards Cedric Dockery and Charlie Tanner rotating, then you’ve got some depth. That is a line that should be helping UT make a couple title pushes in 2008 and 2009.
• • •
Q: You said this week the Texas team that has played the last three games is the team you thought you’d see all season. Can you elaborate on that? Do you think the coaches mismanaged this team on offense this season?
Phillip, Dallas
BROWN: I’ll give the coaches the benefit of the doubt and say that it apparently took Colt McCoy being placed in desperate situations -
i.e. running for his life from the pocket under pressure – to realize he can run the ball. But, yes, there is no reason to think this offense couldn’t be producing all season the way it has the last three games. The beauty of the zone read is that it doesn’t require you to have five-star talent on the offensive line. It creates a split-second pause in defenders that allows the offensive line to get the upper hand. What you’re seeing
the last three games is the same stuff you saw with Vince Young and ***ce Taylor, only Colt McCoy goes for 6 or 16 instead of 60. Jamaal Charles has been as productive, if not more so, than Taylor was in 2005 over the last three games. Charles is averaging 8.9 yards per carry over that span. The coaches went to a pass-first offense to start the season because Colt hadn’t shown the ability to be a consistent running threat in 2006. And he
doesn’t have to be a great runner. He doesn’t have to be VY or Dennis Dixon. He just needs to be a threat to run, which he is. Averaging 5.9 yards per carry the last five games is legit.
• • • Q: With A&M’s defense facing the zone read and a power running game every day in practice, won’t this be the toughest of the running tests Texas has faced
over the last four games?
Eric M., Austin
BROWN: I would say yes, but Louisiana-Monroe ran for 215 yards on A&M. Oklahoma State ran for 200. Kansas ran for 227. Missouri ran for 203. There’s no one running the ball better than Texas the last three games (318 ypg on the ground). So the Longhorns should be able to have a good day on the ground.
• • •
Q: I’m panicked about our defense going into Friday’s game. We are reeling on that side of the ball and I don’t know why more people aren’t talking about it. I think that’s a legitimate reason we could lose the game against Texas A&M. Your thoughts.
Neil R., Houston
BROWN: The Texas defense is reeling. And while everyone will
point to the secondary as the reason for UT’s No. 103 ranking nationally in pass defense, that ranking is also the result of a lot of catch-and-run plays with missed tackles by the linebackers. If Texas wants to win the game Friday, it will play Sergio Kindle, Jared Norton and Rod Muckelroy a majority of the snaps. Those guys are the best athletes and best tacklers at the linebacker position. They are run stuffers. This is their kind of game.
• • • Q: On what basis do you rank UT ahead of OU in your Big 12 rankings? If it is an attempted prediction of where they finish, fair enough. You might be right. If it is based on merit and the body of work, it doesn't make much sense. OU won the head-to-head matchup and there is no reason to think (injuries aside) that they wouldn't beat them again. UT was also drilled at
home by a mediocre KSU team. Which is it? Body of work or prediction of finish?
Jeff W., Dallas
BROWN: Jeff, I did take injuries into consideration and the possibility that OU could lose Saturday with a still groggy Sam Bradford and without leading rusher DeMarco Murray (dislocated kneecap), defensive end Auston English (leg) and other injuries on the defensive line. I’m also wondering what
is going on with the OU running game. Even with Murray and its talented offensive line, OU has been inconsistent running the ball. The Sooners averaged only 3.1 yards per carry against Tech. The defense has also been gashed a bit here lately, giving up 450 yards to Baylor and 473 yards to Tech. Bob Stoops, who shot down rumors of him going to Michigan this week, said he thinks everything is fixable.
• • •
Q: Over the last three games, opponents are averaging 500 yards per game against the Texas defense. Is this defense that bad or do you think we are just seeing the impact in college ball of sophisticated offenses, more speed, and better skilled players on offense?
R.M.
BROWN: A little bit of both. The Texas defense has struggled to tackle well all season. But offenses are
definitely ahead of defense right now with the spread passing/running attacks. As Mack Brown said, “The problems with the last three teams we played were definitely not offense.” Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech can all move the ball. We’re seeing record numbers on offense this season, and the Big 12 is leading the way thanks to Tech, Nebraska, OSU, Missouri and Kansas. It takes time for defenses to catch up. It will take speed,
and lots of it, to negate the spread passing attacks. The amazing thing about the spread is it allows smaller football players to excel. You’re seeing tiny receivers with blazing speed having an impact, much like the run-and-shoot at Houston back in the Southwest Conference.
• • • Q: Does Texas have anything to worry about in terms of Texas A&M’s passing
attack?
Mark W., Coppell
BROWN: If Fran would ever use it. Tight end Martellus Bennett, even though he had to say he might have to go the NFL to show what he can do, has been productive lately. Over the last three games, Bennett has 16 catches for 217 yards and three touchdowns. He’s the guy Texas has to worry about. A&M’s passing attack is 106th nationally. So if Texas gets a lead,
A&M will have to throw and that’s good news for UT. But the Aggies can mix in some throws to Bennett and Earvin Taylor and Kerry Franks that could go for long gains if well-timed.
• • • Q: Can you tell us a little more about the relationship between Texas A&M running back Jorvorskie *** and Texas tight end Jermichael Finley?
Kyle,
San Antonio
BROWN: *** and Finley are half-brothers. They have the same father. *** grew up in Lufkin and Finley grew up about five miles away in Diboll. They played together on AAU basketball teams. They both have children, and they love to give each other a hard time. On *** only getting two carries for 2 yards against Miami earlier this season, Finley said, “He was frustrated. He called me after the game and said,
‘Hand me the ball more and we win.’” Finley has vowed victory Friday after last year’s 12-7 loss. “We got payback to go. We gotta go down there and get our shine back. We’re gonna beat ‘em,” Finley said. *** rejected Texas because he said they wanted him at fullback instead of tailback.
• • • Q: What’s your prediction
for the A&M game and for the Missouri-Kansas game? Could Texas beat either one of those teams in the Big 12 title game?
Lynn, Carrollton
BROWN: I think this one is close into the fourth quarter. I could see A&M leading 20-17 early in the fourth, only to see Texas go up, 24-20, with about 8 minutes left. Then UT gets an insurance touchdown – either on defense or special teams. How’s
that for detail? So I’ll say Texas 31, Texas A&M 20. As far as the Big 12 Game of the Year, I like Kansas. I think Missouri is more talented, but KU has the better coach, the better chemistry, the better defense and a quarterback who just won’t beat himself. I see Todd Reesing emerging as a viable Heisman frontrunner after this game and I’ve been saying for four weeks now that I see KU in the national title game against LSU.
Texas would have a hard time against either one of these teams because the Longhorns’ defense doesn’t match up very well against either Mizzou or KU’s offense. Hope everyone’s having a great holiday. Thanks for the questions and keep them coming.