It's harder than ever to win in college football and easier than ever to get upset if you are a school that has enjoyed perennial power status such as Texas, Oklahoma or LSU. Mack Brown addressed it this week. There are several reasons a school such as South Florida, a program that started 10 years ago (in Division I-AA with double-wide trailers for football offices in Tampa), can be ranked No. 2 behind Ohio State.
Television exposure:
Schools such as Boise State, Rutgers, South Florida and TCU get plenty of air time – even if it is on Thursday, Friday and Sunday night. Kids want to play on television. Now they can, and they don't have to go to Texas or Alabama to do it.
Changes in NCAA admission standards: A little more than three years ago, the NCAA made it easier to get into college by lowering the scores needed on standardized tests, but made
it harder to stay in school. The NCAA did this by requiring that 40 percent of one's degree be done after the sophomore year instead of only 25 percent, etc. Some schools are letting at-risk students in and then finding ways to keep them eligible. Cynical, but true. The result is mega-talented kids who are at-risk to flunk out, end up at lesser-known schools and help turn the program around.
Early recruiting: Schools are
feeling pressure to get kids committed earlier and earlier because all the top schools want to identify and secure the best talent as early as possible. But who really knows if a kid who commits as a sophomore in high school will pan out? The result is much like the NFL Draft. The top talent goes off the board nice and early (say by a kid's junior year) based on a kid's size, speed and athleticism. But there are still tons of kids (think Texas Tech's
Wes Welker) who don't have the measurables that jump out to a top program, but are incredible football players. Those kids are now ending up at South Florida, Boston College and Kansas (see 5-10, KU quarterback Todd Reesing). So the top schools are going after the 6-5 QBs and we all know those kids don't always have the intangibles of the 5-11 kid (see Missouri's Chase Daniel).
Promise of playing time: Most top schools have
enough depth that no true freshman is bucking for a starting job. But lesser-known schools can make that promise and deliver.
Spread offenses: Thanks to guys like Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia and Florida's Urban Meyer, spread offenses have advanced light years and made it even more difficult for defenses. A spread offense with a quarterback who can run and throw (see Appalachian State or Texas in 2005 versus USC) is capable
of great things because the defense can't cover all the receivers and account for the quarterback running without being outnumbered somewhere else.
More sophisticated high school programs: The spread offenses have hit the high school ranks as well. In fact, Todd Dodge, now the head coach at North Texas, taught the spread offense to the Missouri coaching staff two years ago during spring drills while Dodge was still at
Southlake Carroll. So kids are coming out of high school more prepared to play at a high level than ever before.
With all this said, it's more difficult than ever for perennial powers to stay perennial. Can Nebraska get back to an elite status now that programs such as South Florida offer the same opportunity to be ranked in the top three and kids can play in warm weather instead of the snow? There is some seismic shifting going on in
college football. As Brown said, "It's better for fans and harder for coaches."
That's one reason I believe it's more important than ever for Mack and his staff to get young players on the field as soon as possible. Other programs are doing it. Florida worked freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin into key roles on a national title team. Redshirts are becoming less and less popular.
The fact that Texas loses
both safeties after this season and is barely substituting at that position means that Brown will probably come back next season and say, "We're starting over in the secondary." It doesn't have to be that way. Ben Wells and Christian Scott, who are redshirting, could be substituting and getting some repetitions this season. Even junior Ishie Oduegwu is hardly getting on the field.
Freshmen receivers Brandon Collins, Malcolm
Williams and James Kirkendoll will be filling huge roles next season with Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman, Nate Jones and possibly Quan Cosby moving on. But we've hardly seen the freshmen. And quarterback John Chiles is being used in a weird substitution in which he plays with a backup offense made up of freshmen and redshirt freshmen instead of being used as a serious weapon with the first-team offense.
Time will tell how all of this
shakes out, but the bottom line is the landscape in college football is shifting and only the most nimble, progressive and imaginative coaches are going to be able to keep the schools once considered perennial powers on top.
Q: If UT wins out, what are their chances of getting an at-large
BCS berth? Also if they do win out and do not get an at-large birth, will the season be considered a success? Especially if Oklahoma once again wins the Big 12.
Daniel L.
BROWN: I think the chances are slim that Texas would get an at-large BCS berth. I think the at-large berth will come out of the Pac-10 with a team like Oregon, Cal or Arizona State. If Texas wins out and goes 10-2, I think
it would be a successful season. No one saw a 20-point home loss to Kansas State – the worst home loss in Mack Brown's 10 seasons as coach – so that one stings. And if Oklahoma wins a fifth Big 12 title with a fifth different quarterback under Bob Stoops, Sooners fans will continue to say Mack Brown can't win a title without Vince Young. But winning out against what appears to be a quality Texas Tech team, an improving Oklahoma State team and
archrival Texas A&M in College Station would leave Longhorn fans feeling positive about 2008, when UT should start taking some serious steps toward a title run. For Texas to really feel good about itself, it will want to end up in the Holiday Bowl, where it would get the chance to play an excellent team from the Pac-10, someone like USC, Cal, Oregon or Arizona State. If Texas could go to San Diego and win a game like that, UT fans would feel
really good about 2008.
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Q: I have two linebacker related questions. First, when are the coaches finally going to do something about Robert Killebrew and his consistently stupid personal foul penalties? It would be understandable if his penalties could be considered somewhat questionable due to aggressive play but most of his personal foul penalties are just blatant
and stupid. Second, what are your thoughts on the play of the veteran starters compared to the younger guys? It sure seems like the younger guys make more plays. Is this a case of the coaches putting individual player loyalties above team goals?
C.B., Keller
BROWN: I probably bored everyone last week with my persistent questions about why the coaches aren't playing Sergio Kindle, Jared Norton
and Rod Muckelroy more at linebacker. In my opinion, they are the better playmakers and future leaders of the team (in 2008 and 2009, when Texas should be a title contender). So I asked Mack Brown and Duane Akina this week. Both said the young linebackers are doing well, even on special teams. Mack said the coaches would play the young ones "more and more." Mack said the goal was to play them "every other series or every five plays."
So we'll see. Both Mack and Duane said they weren't in any hurry to replace veterans Rashad Bobino, Killebrew and Scott Derry because both "had spilled a lot of blood for this program" and "helped us win a national title." Akina said, "Mack also said the young linebackers are still grasping their pass coverage assignments.
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Q: When we signed
Drew Kelson I thought that we would have a major contributor on defense for the next four years. He's incredibly bright and athletic. Why have we seen him play so little on defense this year? I've always thought he had the potential to be a playmaker and force turnovers; which is something this defense desperately needs.
Greg
BROWN: I thought the coaches should have moved Kelson back to linebacker
once they realized he didn't have the fluidity in pass coverage to play much this season except in specialized roles. Kelson is a great, sideline-to-sideline striker and solid in pass coverage as a linebacker. We saw him make so many plays in 2005. It was Kelson's idea to move back to safety. But as a coach, I would have told Drew it probably wasn't going to work at safety and that his best chance of playing was at linebacker.
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Q: I guess when you're the coach and you've been living with the players day in and day out, loyalty becomes a big factor. But, for us armchair quarterbacks, it's easy to say (and I'm saying it) that he is making a mistake. The season is basically in the toilet, so what better time than now to give these guys more playing time? And I personally believe the comment about how the tape
does not reveal bad play on the part of Derry, Killebrew and Babino is a lie. Coaches (see Mike Gundy) protect their players to the media. Oh well, Mack is getting paid millions to make these decisions. I guess he's just going to keep making his "suicide watch" cracks to the crowd, while we sit here and listen to the spin ...
Mark L., Austin
BROWN: Mark the quote you're referring to is
this one from Duane Akina about the linebackers: "All six of them deserve to play. They're all playing well. The older ones have spilled a lot of blood for this program. And I'm one that maybe believes they should still be playing. There's nothing on tape that says they should not. And yet the younger ones are playing well, too, and there's nothing on tape that says they should not be playing, either. That's why you see them rolling in and
out." Mack is old school. I call him Smith Barney Brown (remember the Smith Barney commercials with the guy saying, "We make money the old fashioned way, we earn it." Mack is a guy who has a hard time telling parents their kid who helped him win a Rose Bowl isn't going to be playing as much any more. Mack's old-school mindset made him the perfect fit for Texas when he arrived because he appreciates the history and tradition at Texas and
put the UT family back together after it had been fractured since Darrell Royal stepped down in 1976. Mack's old-school mindset is also a big reason Vince Young had to go to Mack and ask him if it would be OK if Vince showed more of his personality and played music in the locker room and danced with his teammates. I will say this again, Mack Brown is the perfect guy to lead Texas, and he has learned from his mistakes in the past. I believe he'll realize
in today's highly competitive environment in college football, you have to play the best players and let them grow into their roles. You also have to have an eye on the future and play young players to get them enough repetitions to feel comfortable with huge roles the following season.
• • •
Q: At the beginning of the season you predicted that we would lose to Oklahoma
State. What's your thinking now? Also, what do you think the odds are of OU blowing two games between now and the end of the season? Do you think Tech and the Cowboys have chance?
Steve, McKinney
BROWN: If Oklahoma State keeps looking like the Cowboy team that rolled into Lincoln and parted the Red Sea, then, yes, I think OSU has a chance to knock off Texas. I could see OU possibly losing to Tech
because that game is in Lubbock, but I doubt OU would follow that up with a loss to Oklahoma State in Norman the next week.
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Q: Has Lamarr Houston passed Eddie Jones? I remember Oscar Giles talking about Eddie Jones last year during his redshirt year and just gushing praise about him. He basically said to get ready and enjoy watching him for several years because
he will be a special player. He even said that he will be a "Sunday" player. It appears Houston has passed him. Eddie Jones was much more highly recruited coming out of high school. Has Jones disappointed? Has Houston been that good? Are there other issues?
J.T., Pearland
BROWN: Houston is that good. Jones is a fine player, but Houston is more physical against the run and can also get to
the passer. I think Houston is going to be special.
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Q: Why was the embarrassing loss at home to K-State not inspiring enough to elicit a tearful, heartfelt speech from Colt McCoy and a psychological coaching ploy like, "We're starting a new season" from Coach Brown? Those motivational gimmicks might have been nice before the OU game when the Longhorns
still controlled their division and conference championship destinies.
Cory, Dallas
BROWN: I don't think McCoy was confident enough in his own abilities or cognizant of what county he was in after the K-State game to make such a plea. Remember, he had just thrown four picks and was throwing up from a mild concussion in the fourth quarter. McCoy said Monday he felt more comfortable taking on the role
of vocal leader after the OU game because he's playing better – thanks to offensive coordinator Greg Davis simplifying McCoy's responsibilities at the line of scrimmage. Before the Oklahoma game, if McCoy spotted a blitz, for example, he was allowed to decide if he wanted to check to a hot route (a pass route where the blitz is coming from), check to a sprint out, check to a max protection with a set series of routes or check to a max protection
and change all the routes. "That's four things that have to happen in about 17 seconds and you have to communicate it to 10 other guys," Davis said. "So now we have him just do one thing when he makes a read and then we decide if we want to handle it the same way the next time." Davis said McCoy is now playing much "more loose and looks like he's having fun." Mack Brown called McCoy's game at Iowa State one of the
best in his career. They lauded a 44-yard touchdown run by McCoy and a play in which he fought off tacklers, used his hand to keep from going to the ground, got up and threw a 20-yard TD strike to Nate Jones.
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Q: Although this year has at times been difficult to watch, it sort of reminds me of 2003: young quarterback, very spotty play from a young offensive line, a
somewhat close but hard-fought loss to OU. Makes me think the Horns might develop into something special when the offensive line comes together and matures along with Colt. Things went pretty well after the 2003 season for the Horns. Could this be a repeat of '03 with big things to come the next two years?
Jess, Mansfield
BROWN: I think that's how it looks. If Texas thinks it has the answers in the
secondary and at receiver to replace the guys leaving after this season, then UT should be in position to make some solid gains next season. Texas picks up Missouri, Colorado and Kansas next year, which is starting to look like the top half of the Big 12 North. (UT plays at Colorado and at Kansas next season). There's a real chance Oklahoma, especially if it goes on to big things this season, might lose some of its juniors, such as offensive linemen Duke
Robinson and Phil Loadholt and receiver Malcolm Kelly. But if those guys all come back, OU will be absolutely loaded again next season. That's why I said earlier this season that Texas had better beat OU in 2007 or it might not win the Red River Shootout again any time soon.
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Q: It seems like Mack Brown did a better job of rotating young guys through in year's
past with guys like Rod Wright, Derrick Johnson, even Derek Lokey in the Rose Bowl against Michigan and Robert Joseph at safety last season as a redshirt freshman. What's the change this season? Is it Duane Akina?
Mark, Houston
BROWN: There's a good chance it's Akina. If you reference his earlier quote about the linebackers, you start to see he is a guy who is loyal to the older players, especially
in the secondary. He feels like he has put Erick Jackson and Marcus Griffin through the mill for four and five years and wants to give them the chance to succeed – just like Aaron Ross last season. It's worked out at cornerback this season. Fifth-year senior Brandon Foster and fourth-year junior Ryan Palmer have held up well. Foster set a school season record with his third defensive return for a TD against Iowa State. And Palmer leads the team
in tackles and pass breakups. (Scary that a corner is leading the team in tackles, but that's what happens when Palmer has to track down the running backs who bounce everything outside and the linebackers can't get there.) Jackson has yet to show up in a big play this season, so he's a guy you could see getting substituted for more with a guy like sophomore Ishie Oduegwu.
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Q: Why do you think Jermichael Finley disappeared from the game plan last Saturday? They don't use him enough in my opinion. Also, why hasn't Quan Cosby thrown a pass on a reverse this year? We just don't seem to be utilizing all of our talent.
John, Grand Prairie
BROWN: I was surprised Finley wasn't in the game plan more, as well. Iowa State played a lot of zone coverage, but even Cover
2 can be exploited by the sending the tight end deep and forcing the safeties to choose Finley or an outside receiver. I will be shocked if Finley is shut out of another game like he was last week. Greg Davis said so much other stuff was working that they didn't make a conscious effort to get Finley the ball. Mack Brown said Finley had a great attitude about it after the game, saying Finley was just happy the team won. I predicted before the
season that Quan Cosby would be the breakout player of the year. I, too, had hoped to see Cosby – a former high school quarterback – used to throw a double-pass or reverse pass, especially against Oklahoma. But maybe we'll see it before the season is over. You would think so.
• • •
Q: You have been very critical of the Texas program the last few weeks.
Are you hearing about it from the coaches? I appreciate your honesty and objectivity. I'm a diehard Texas fan and want to hear what's really going on, not just coach speak. So thanks for telling it like it is.
Tim, Arlington
BROWN: Tim, thanks for the e-mail. I have been critical because I think college football is changing, and you have to be on the cutting edge to keep up. Mack Brown has been on the
cutting edge. You saw it in 2005. And you have seen him use younger players more aggressively in years' past. Lyle Sendlein got a ton of snaps as a young player. So did Selvin Young, splitting some time with Cedric Benson back in 2002. So I'm just pointing out some areas where I see Mack getting away from his roots. There may be a chance Mack has been reluctant to play his young linebackers more because he's worried about their pass coverage. But
they are talented and athletic enough that they can learn while still making some huge plays that lead to turnovers (see Sergio Kindle's pressure that led to an interception by Deon Beasley last week.) I have said repeatedly that I think Mack Brown and Sally Brown are two of the highest-character people I've ever covered in my 20 years covering news and sports. I mean that. I have tons of respect for Brown and think he is the perfect fit for Texas.
But he has raised the bar on the field in Austin. Mack won a national title two years ago, and he said himself he'd like to win another one. There will be no national title this season, so Mack has to start looking to 2008 and 2009. It's hard but true. Part of his job is keeping his program at a high level. Developing young players and future leaders to take over next year's team is an essential part of that, even if it means less playing time for guys
who have done everything right – on and off the field who may be less talented. All I've said is there appear to be some serious playmaking sophomores at linebacker who should be playing more. I've also wondered why some other players (Drew Kelson, Ishie Oduegwu, maybe even Ben Wells and Christian Scott, who are redshirting) haven't gotten a chance to rotate in at Erick Jackson's strong safety spot and why John Chiles and the young receivers
haven't played a little more, especially in a game like last week when Colt McCoy is playing into the fourth quarter (why?) in a blowout win at Iowa State. But my questions don't bother Mack. He and I have been together for 10 years. I think I've always tried to be fair. I've written the glowing features as well as the critical stories. I'm always going to try to provide the whole picture.
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Q: You see any problems for Texas in this week's game at Baylor?
Lynn, Mansfield
BROWN: No. Baylor's quarterback is woozy and they have an assistant coach who was suspended after being cited for using a bar as a bathroom. So Texas should roll. Let's say, Texas 51, Baylor 13. Thanks for the questions. Keep them coming.