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New items about your countries of interest:

* Working Paper No. 07/176: The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

Author/Editor: Österholm, Pär; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin

Summary: This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and U.S. or world growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21163.0
[Matched: United States]

* Working Paper No. 07/177: Financing of Global Imbalances

Author/Editor: Walker, W. Christopher; Punzi, Maria Teresa

Summary: This paper analyzes the determinants of bond flows, now the dominant source of capital inflows, into the United States, as a means of establishing conditions affecting the financing of the U.S. current account deficit. To test the hypothesis that capital flows have become more responsive to changes in relative interest rates and other conditions across borders, a panel data set, showing bond flows from 12 separate jurisdictions into the United States, is constructed for the period 1994-2006 using adjusted U.S. Treasury International Capital Flow (TIC) data. Panel vector autoregression and instrumental variables approaches are used to estimate the impact of changes in interest rate differentials and other fundamentals on capital flows into the U.S. The paper finds evidence for an impact from interest rate differentials to bond inflows that has increased over time. Under one plausible set of theoretical assumptions, the increased sensitivity can be interpreted as resulting from a reduction in home bias on the part of non-US investors.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21164.0
[Matched: United States]

* Confronting the Future with Wisdom and Courage, Speech by Rodrigo de Rato, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2007/071907.htm
[Matched: United States]

* Working Paper No. 07/182: Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim; Swiston, Andrew

Summary: VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding real net exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects dominate spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21192.0
[Matched: United States]

* Consultation to Reduce Global Imbalance, Commentary by Rodrigo de Rato, Managing Director, IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2007/051507.htm
[Matched: United States]

* Transcript of a Press Briefing on the Release of the Updates to the April 2007 World Economic Outlook and the Global Financial Stability Report, with Jaime Caruana, Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department and Charles Collyns, Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2007/tr070725.htm
[Matched: United States]



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